After the LIBRA Insider Leaks, What Should the Meme Market Reflect On?
原文标题:On memecoins and insiders
原文作者:heartereum,StableUnit 成员
原文编译:ChatGPT
编者按:本文探讨了加密货币领域,尤其是 meme 币和炒作币发行中的内幕操作及其带来的伦理和市场问题,揭示了代币发行过程中存在的私下交易、信息泄漏、狙击手行为以及内幕人士如何利用技术和资本操控市场,导致零售投资者几乎无法以低市值购买到代币。此外,文章还讨论了加密货币行业普遍的失望情绪,并指出加密市场大多被视为一个零和博弈的投机场所。尽管行业存在广泛的道德问题,公众对这些现象的讨论仍然不足,且缺乏有效的解决方案。
以下为原文内容(为便于阅读理解,原内容有所整编):
与 Hayden Davis 的 Coffeezilla 采访,讨论了 LIBRA 的推出,听起来相当有趣。它揭示了一些大多数人以为是事实,但从未公开承认的普遍做法,以及这些做法的传播程度。
但在我看来,采访中也触及了一些非常有趣的话题,尤其是关于 meme 币和炒作币的发行,这些话题超越了所描述的犯罪行为,我认为它们值得在这个领域展开更广泛的讨论。
或者说,这是一个「皇帝新衣」的时刻,揭开了无法再遮掩的真相。我们来列举一些重要的亮点:
1. 大多数「meme 币」大规模的推出是在私下交易后才发生的,其中一部分或大部分的供应量被以低于发售市值的价格购买或分配给 KOL 和其他实体。
2. 由于涉及许多人,且每个人有不同的议程和归属,关于这些代币/交易的早期信息通常会「泄露」给其他没有参与交易的方。
3. 从 Hayden Davis 本人的口中说出:「那你怎么赚钱呢?」也就是说,所有这些实体坚信,赚大钱的唯一途径就是成为一个操控的游戏的内幕人士,没有公平,也没有为那些被排除在外的人留餐。
4. 部分原因是第 2 点(信息泄漏),但也不可避免地,一旦代币在公共区块链上有效部署并存在智能合约地址,就会有许多技术成熟、资金(数百万美元)充裕的「狙击手」在代币生命周期的最初几秒钟内抢占大量供应,并且由于他们与「团队」没有任何关联,他们不介意通过倾销自己手中的代币来破坏市场图表。
5. 到目前为止,「团队」对第 4 点问题的回应是,他们自己也进行狙击(我认为是按佣金),以「限制」其他狙击手能抢走和倾销的供应量。令人惊讶的是,他们并不认为这不道德,或者说是操控,而是将其视为「保护」散户和市场图表。
6. 有一个灰色地带,Hayden 提到,获得的这部分供应/流动性(也通过从流动性池中「提取」部分资金如 meteora 等)被视为「财政储备」,用于维持中长期市场图表,但也是团队从中获得利润的资金来源。看起来这里有大量的资金混合,「散户」则对这些资金的真正用途一无所知。
7. 唯一「有机」的 meme 币大多已经死掉,或者死掉后被重新启动(通常是由和第 1 点类似的团队重新操作)。
8. 管理这些大规模炒作发行的团队希望代币能够活跃几个月,「最好能活 1-2 年」,但现实情况是,代币很难活超过几天。他们将问题归咎于第 4 点(狙击手)。
9. 在这些内幕人士中,存在广泛且一致的愤世嫉俗观点,即加密货币,所有加密货币,大多数没有任何实用性或使用案例,是零和博弈,目的是找到下一个更大的傻瓜来接盘,是一个最大化提取价值的游戏。根据 Hayden 的说法,这是「从上到下,甚至包括比特币」。
10. 他们有一种扭曲的道德观点,认为尽管传统资本市场(如股票等)被视为「操控和腐败」,尽管有所有的监管和法律,指责加密货币是操控的游戏是一种虚伪的行为。认为加密货币可以作为建立更公平游戏场所的新平台的想法被视为幼稚和天真。
如我上面所写,尽管在采访中承认了广泛的犯罪行为,但我认为其中一些观点在公开的加密讨论中几乎没有得到处理,至于「解决方案」,似乎稀缺、理想化,或者问题本身被轻描淡写地当做无关紧要的事情。
首先,区块链的公开透明性使得,一旦某个代币的智能合约地址(CA)建立,抢占这个代币的机会就成为了一个「解决了的问题」,有些参与者拥有必要的技术能力和几乎无限的资本来在代币生命周期的最初几秒钟内抢占大量供应。
基本上,零售投资者买到低市值的代币的机会几乎为零,除非它是一个「死币」,你有幸运碰上某人后续操作(通常这些代币会先被内幕人士抢占)。
这对于任何即使是善意想直接推向市场的代币来说是一个巨大的未解决问题,也就是说,跳过私人投资轮(但即使是这些,可能也会在 TGE 时被狙击)。
有一些可能的临时解决方案和变通方法,我个人还没看到它们被测试过,例如例如大规模部署 50 个代币到 pumpfun 上,然后在绑定和达到足够市值后,保持真正的 CA 地址未知。这会迫使狙击手要么分散他们的资本,要么赌运气猜对 CA,从而限制零售的损失,但并没有从根本上解决问题。同时,这也会受到内幕人士泄露真实 CA 地址的信息影响(可能是卖给狙击手换取金钱等)。
另一个大问题是愤世嫉俗。
这或许值得单独写一篇文章(甚至更多!),但基本上,迄今为止这一周期的主旋律是失望: 在我看来,大多数参与者,尤其是新手,对于加密货币能够建立去中心化金融(DeFi)的承诺并不乐观,即人们能够成为自己资金的主权持有者,进行操作时不需要第三方中介,并且不受国家边界的限制和费用等影响。
现在,加密货币大多数被视为一个荒野赌场,没有任何代币被认为是无辜的,它们只是没有支持或效用的投机资产,一切都被看作零和博弈,在这个博弈中,只有我亏你赚,大家都在玩「更大的傻瓜」游戏,直到音乐停止。
我加一句,这一点也不怪他们,因为即使我们把以太坊看作是朝着「世界计算机」和「DeFi」的第一个成熟步骤,它的智能合约技术和这个行业如今已经接近 15 年,虽然有几个令人尊敬的协议满足了成千上万用户的 DeFi 需求,但 15 年对于技术和金融来说是很长的一段时间,我认为我们可以说它「大部分没有兑现」它的承诺。
但是,我看到那么多关注犯罪行为、丧失金钱和道德缺失的讨论,却没有足够的讨论来问自己:我们真的在这里建立什么吗?我们是否真的在为传统金融、银行和机构的枷锁提供一种替代方案,或者在建立一种替代方案?
还是我们真的只剩下比特币大致成为传统金融资产,其它的空间则是一些试图从毫无头绪的绝望个体身上榨取金钱的土匪们的天堂?
「原文链接」
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